Oracle's Q4 results: What to expect

Many eyes in the tech world will fall on Oracle later this week, when the vendor's fourth-quarter results are set for release. This is typically the biggest reporting period for Oracle each year in terms of revenue, but a number of questions loom beyond its top-line performance.
Here's a look at some of the topics Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and other executives may discuss or be asked to address during Thursday's conference call on the results.

New software purchases versus maintenance: Oracle has consistently made sure to highlight its strong software maintenance revenue, which existing customers pay each year for support and updates. Maintenance fees carry extremely high profit margins for Oracle and other software vendors.
But another key metric to watch is new software license revenue. Growth in this area says customers are broadening their investments in Oracle software, whether by adding licenses for their existing implementation or trying out newer products.

Oracle has begun reporting new software licenses sales in tandem with cloud software subscription services as it moves further into the SaaS (software as a service) market. Last quarter, revenue in the combined category fell 2 percent, which along with a 1 percent drop in overall revenue led to some shaky nerves on Wall Street.
This time around things should be different, analyst firm Canaccord Genuity said in a report issued Monday. "Our research indicates that aggregate software demand improved sequentially from [the third quarter]," the report states. "However, there are treacherous pockets of weakness. We expect Oracle to navigate those challenges and post at least a consensus quarter."

Hardware ho-hum?: A less likely outcome of Thursday's results is a sudden turnaround in Oracle's hardware revenue, which have fallen consistently since the acquisition of Sun Microsystems. Oracle has maintained it is focused on higher-margin systems like Exadata, rather than commodity servers. During its third-quarter earnings call, CFO Safra Catz said customers had also been waiting for new Sparc-based systems to be released, and Ellison himself told analysts not to expect a turnaround until the first quarter of Oracle's fiscal 2014.

Fusion Applications update: One thing is for sure: Nobody can accuse Oracle of over-hyping the success of its next-generation Fusion Applications. To the contrary, its public remarks on uptake of Fusion have suggested industry watchers should manage their expectations, as installed-base customers of older applications adopt modules incrementally, particularly in SaaS form.
Oracle has said there are more than 400 Fusion customers, but many observers will be looking for an updated figure, as well as some color regarding how many have gone live, compared to ones in mid-implementation, and which types of modules they are choosing.